PrintHello, India
The widespread use of English is a huge advantage for India over China, in terms of integrating itself into the high tech service economy of the 21st Century. Both China and India have no shortage of smart, studious, and ambitious young people. Both countries have substantial expatriate communities in the United States. But only India can do business in English as a matter of course. This advantage is likely to become increasingly important in the decade ahead.
Equally important to economics, India's geo—strategic profile is changing rapidly in the direction of alignment with the United States and its allies. To some extent, this realignment is purposely being downplayed, due to India's need to maintain a more neutral appearance. India is critically dependent on oil supplies from Muslim countries. A large number of Indian citizens work as expatriates in Persian Gulf nations. India has a huge Muslim minority within its borders, and 'communal violence' between Muslims and Hindus has been an unfortunate periodic phenomenon. With a bitter territorial dispute over Kashmir occasionally sparking terrorism, India has to be careful.
With relatively little fanfare, India has been constructing a de—facto alliance with Israel, starting with military equipment and staff training, and extending to rapidly—developing economic ties. India is buying $ multi—billion PHALCON AWACs airborne radar system from Israel. The USA gave its approval to this transaction, since Israel has licensed American technology for use in the PHALCON system.
Rather than going with an expensive Boeing 767 as the platform for this system, India is having it fitted on Russian IL—76 jumbo jets, but with American engines. This combo gives India air superiority over Pakistan at a bargain price, when it goes operational in a few years. Pakistan is naturally livid.
Anti—terror training is also a very big component of the emerging India—Israel alliance. This alliance is scaring Pakistan, from which terror incursions sometimes originate, and many other Muslim countries.
India's cheap, skilled, numerate high tech work force is an excellent compliment with Israel's innovation and entrepreneurship. Israeli agriculture experts are working in India, and groups of Indian farmers are regularly touring Israel. India's population is still quite rural, and Israel's expertise in using water and fertilizer well in arid, hot climates, is invaluable in enriching village India.
India is a geo—strategic counterweight to China, which aims to dominate Asia. China has watched developing ties between the USA and India with alarm. China is making strenuous efforts to overcome past hostilities over border issues, and cultivate India as an ally. Recently, China undertook joint maneuvers with the Indian Navy, something unthinkable a couple of years ago. India is in the catbird seat on this. Incidentally, India is developing a bluewater navy, and now has one aircraft carrier.
Japan, committed to Chinese manufacturing investments, yet fearful of China's military and China's hard feelings over Japanese military history, is in an interesting position with regard to India. While welcoming the growth of India as a democratic country, liberalizing its economy, and eager to invest in and trade with India, Japan must feel somewhat threatened by the ease with which Indians can work with American high technology companies. Similarly, India's rising military profile benefits Japan to the extent that it distracts China from Japan's neighborhood, but the current efforts of China to cultivate ties with India must be somewhat disconcerting.
A key role in the transformation of India has been, and will continue to be played by the expatriate community of Indians in the United States. To an extraordinary degree, Indian immigrants have played a key role in the rise of high technology Silicon Valley. The Indian Institute of Technology is a six—campus powerhouse, and ranks with CalTech and MIT in many fields, but graduates many times the number of capable engineers. IIT alumni who have made fortunes overseas are beginning to endow their alma mater in the manner modeled by their American peers.
These expatriates have been a major force in promoting the integration/division of labor which enables American high technology companies to innovate in a cost effective way that is unavailable to their Japanese, Korean, and continental European rivals. Interestingly, Britain, our closest strategic partner, also enjoys a substantial population of Indian expatriates, and is capable of enjoying the same sorts of technological advantage, due to the English Language advantage.
The whole world doesn't hate America. India already is, or shortly will be the most populous country in the world: one fifth of humanity. As it assumes the role of economic and military powerhouse, it is also going from rather hostile to rather friendly with the United States. This is a very, very big deal.
