PrintSeptember 30, 2010
CNN, Democrats, and November 2nd
The numbers don't lie. Two headlines from the week require a stronger look.
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Strongly disapprove.
Headline: Obama: Democratic voter apathy 'inexcusable'
The AP reports this. "President Barack Obama says it would be 'inexcusable' and 'irresponsible' for unenthusiastic Democratic voters to sit out the midterm elections."
Rasmussen Reports has its daily "Presidential Approval Index".
9/27/2010 (-14)Strongly Approve 27%Strongly Disapprove 41%
This is up from its recent low on September 9.
9/09/2010 (-24)Strongly Approve 23%Strongly Disapprove 47%
Analysis: Obama's numbers have wavered, likely due to cross-sectional differences in who is being polled on any given day, but the rolling average remains in the high teens. It is Obama's unpopularity that is driving apathy and courting potential disaster within Democratic ranks. Obama must be careful what he wishes for. He might well contribute to further "nationalizing" the midterms. A conspiracy theory might conclude that that is his intention. It is plausible that a higher turnout from his party could come from disaffected conservative Democrats (otherwise "apathetic") who would vote against him.
Back to conspiracy theory. One can argue that Obama is simply making a feigning gesture towards party loyalty because he has to, that he would actually prefer a strong GOP victory on November 2 to give him an excuse for any failure to produce results from his agenda over the next two years. His personal approval numbers would then likely go up since some of the "strongly disapprove" comes from within his own core, with strident liberals who are upset that Obama has not moved hard enough to the left.
A strong GOP victory in the midterms would allow Obama to play strong to his core base with the knowledge that he is free to talk a big game without having to deliver one, since he is being "blocked by the other party" from doing so. That argument is curious enough to elicit debate, but it misses that Obama's personal ego is set to be ravaged by a near-repudiation of his concepts and beliefs -- that it is his actions that the American people are set to overwhelmingly reject.
It could also set the stage for an announcement that Obama will not seek a second term, to avoid the potential of an internal war within the Democratic party (one he would likely lose) should Hilary Clinton resign her position and begin to form a primary challenge in 2012. That Obama is being rejected by the right was to be expected. That his actions created a national movement that threatens the Democratic Party long-term is a bigger issue within the ranks of his own party.
Democratic analysis claiming internal issues within the GOP over the Tea Party misses the mark wildly. The GOP is reacting swiftly to course-correct to seek its long-term base as a standard-bearer for traditional American values. It will, for the most part, achieve that with this election. It can solidify that standing in 2012.
The same cannot be said for the situation on the other side. Obama himself is the major threat to do long-term damage to the Democratic party. It is the split he caused by being who he is: a core member of the hard-left wing. If the Democrats do not react smartly by shifting right and dismissing their hard left wing, they threaten to throw conservative Democrats to the other side for a generation or more.
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This, is CNN.
Headline: CNN's Klein Fired As Network Struggles in Ratings
Want to know why CNN went through a management upheaval? Here's a snapshot of overnight ratings compiled by tvbythenumbers.com.
Thursday September 24, 2010:
8PM ET 9/24/10 - Total viewersFNC - The O'Reilly Factor- 3,201,000 viewersMSNBC - Countdown w/ K. Doberman - 1,032,000 viewersHLN - Nancy Grace - 593,000 viewersCNN - Rick's List -583,000 viewers
Analysis: As a former employee and sports anchor for both CNN and Fox Sports/NewsCorp, I take no sides in the debate outside my opinion that CNN still does breaking news coverage better than anyone, but Fox News does a better job of appointment television. With Ken Jautz promoted to the new boss at CNN, leaving HLN and moving "upstairs" (and it is literally upstairs -- CNN is on the floor above HLN at CNN Center in Atlanta), the question is how to program in day parts against FNC.
CNN made at least three major mistakes, all based on its desire to reflect its political leanings and the internally uncomfortable nature of conservative-based shows on its networks. Allowing Glenn Beck to leave HLN for FNC, allowing Greta Van Susteren to leave CNN for FNC, and allowing Lou Dobbs to leave the network (and then replacing him with John King) have each proven to be ratings disasters for CNN.
A nightly Dobbs/Beck/Greta lineup would have garnered far higher ratings than what CNN currently provides. Now might be the time to move Nancy Grace onto the CNN platform; that would be a ratings boost over the current slot. Grace at 8pm ET on CNN would likely increase her audience to 800,000-plus. It will be interesting to see what impact the Parker/Spitzer show has, though I have serious doubts about its viability in the current market. Moving Wolf Blitzer back to where he excels in the field, moving Anderson Cooper to a new morning show, moving Rick Sanchez to midday news, and revamping the entire 7p-11p block with four new shows (including the much-needed return of "Crossfire") is something CNN desperately needs to do.
CNN has desired to play more to an international audience at the expense of the American audience. The numbers reflect that position. It is, interestingly, strong ground for CNN to stand on. Its strategy has branded it as the leading news source worldwide. Whether that is worth the beating it has taken on its domestic numbers is a debatable issue. What CNN has failed to understand, flatly ignored, or worse, outright rejected, is that it does not have to compromise its international standing with is domestic appeal if it chooses to expand to its right.
CNN is not a center network. It remains tilted liberal. It sought its own ground somewhere to the middle-left between FNC to its right and MSNBC to its left. Choosing to do stronger shows with more direct opinion and seeking at least two strong conservative voices among the largely to overwhelmingly liberal lineup, it has produced at times what would be a smart move in the correct direction. Failure to act boldly might well doom CNN to be hammered here at home by FNC for the next decade.
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In both cases, simply appearing to move to the center will not be good enough. Both the Democratic Party and CNN must publicly act to move right to offset the losses. Refusing to see where the American public is currently (the majority of the public does not agree with the internal positions of CNN or the Democratic Party) will remain costly to both. As someone who is strongly fond of CNN on a personal level for my years there, I remain hopeful that the network can reposition itself to become stronger both in the personalities and product it produces, and from the trust of the larger American public. CNN's breaking news coverage has that core trust, so much so that when major breaking news happens, viewers will leave FNC and switch to CNN. (That also points to the core news problem FNC currently has: a relatively weak news division.)
Building a prime-time lineup that can grasp and retain viewers and win their loyalty is the key to CNN's long-term success. The Democrats aren't so lucky right now. They can't just fire the guy doing the damage. Its lineup overhaul is much more difficult to accomplish.
November is the biggest ratings month of the television year. On November 2, CNN will do tremendous ratings. This is where it excels. But on November 3, the audience will be lost, gone to FNC for critical analysis -- a statement that is both true and troubling to the futures of a cable television network and major political party at the same time.
John Fricke is a national radio and TV host and conservative opinion commentator. His website is www.johnfricke.pedia.com.
John Fricke is a national radio and TV host and conservative opinion commentator. His website is www.johnfricke.pedia.com.
