"Politics itself is a mass of lies, evasions, folly, hatred and schizophrenia."

—Orwell

The next American presidential election year should be a potboiler — not Orwell's 1984, but close.

The playbook on the left is pretty much a done deal.  Joseph Robinette Biden and family will be running on three planks: the war in Ukraine with Russia, the war for woke at home, and "anybody but Trump."  Call it Putinesque abroad and grotesque at home.  More than a little ironic that Democrats, formerly the refusenik party, are now a guns-and-butter wunderkind, marching globally under rainbow flags.

The Beltway swamp makes for bizarre literal and figurative bedfellows.  Americans may have delusions about Biden family identity, but the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin certainly do not.

On the domestic front, if DIE and kinky culture are markers, the American left is already a flaming success at the tactical and operation levels.  Democrats have already planted woke, snowflake, and freak flags in all the federal institutions that matter: State, Defense, Commerce, Education, the Intelligence Community, and Public Broadcasting.  Surely, you could do worse than think of the legacy media as closet comrades, too — allies of the freak, creep, and deep states.

Worse still, nine of ten apparatchiks and contractors in the Washington, D.C. area vote for Democrats.  Partisan civil "servants" are a huge subversive asset even when Republicans or conservatives win high office.

Just ask Donald Trump.

Biden will cultivate the snowflake, woke, and war vote in a debate-free environment, shielded by partisan legacy media prophylactics.  For a climax, speaking actuarially, Joe Robinette could also ensure that Kamala Harris succeeds him.

Clearly, Republicans are the underdogs in the run-up to 2024, or better still, "down dogs" if you are familiar with that yoga posture.  Tenured Republican Senate and House mandarins are down dog experts, posteriors ever at the ready.

Nevertheless, the political scrum on the American right in 2024 has some notables, interesting and worthy candidates all.  Let's start with a formidable woman.

Nikki Haley

Nikki Haley is a native of South Carolina, where she served as a state legislator, governor, and then ambassador to the United Nations in the Trump administration.  Haley has been quick to separate herself from woke or snowflake social memes so popular with the legacy media — and in urban Democrat sinecures.

Nikki has made it clear that she doesn't support male transvestites/transsexuals encroaching or threatening female spaces or places, especially in sports.  Good get there.

Haley has also put a shot across the Pentagon's bow by pledging to clean up dicey DIE programs at DOD that have had devastating consequences for recruiting and retention.  Haley is a strong supporter of Israel also.  She has opposed any BDS measures that target the Jewish state.

Nikki also supports voter ID legislation, suggesting she believes that the integrity of U.S. national elections might need to be "built back better."

Earlier, Governor Haley expressed some doubts about the war against Russia in Ukraine but has since become more hawkish.  Skepticism about the pricey Ukraine caper seems to be an emerging theme among other serious Republican presidential candidates.

Ron DeSantis

At the moment, the big dog in the Republican race, other than Trump, is Ron DeSantis, incumbent governor of Florida.  DeSantis is more than a phenom.  He has pretty much remade the politics of Florida from purple to fire engine red.  And unlike his competitors, he has had the courage to get out front in the war against woke.

Specifically, DeSantis has kicked the Disney Corporation, Florida's largest employer, in its financial giblets.  Few politicians are willing to take on woke Wall Street in the name of tradition or family values.  Nevertheless, Governor DeSantis was smart enough and brave enough to call out Disney's drift into the sex fetish quagmire, now a nightmare threat to American women and children.

Arguably, Disney is the most important American cultural influence on children, with a national, if not global reach.  By hitting Disney, Ron DeSantis is drawing a line in the sand for all those American voters who have had enough of woke politics, snowflake whining, and medical malpractice — all in the name of fetish lifestyles and scientific fictions.

Clearly, Disney is left coast, not Florida, culture.

Philosophically, you could argue that DeSantis isn't very different from Donald Trump.  The difference between the two is largely personality.  The Florida governor is more articulate, a less acerbic politician, and probably more congenial in general.

Let's just say DeSantis might be Trump without the baggage.

Donald Trump

Once again, Trump is the lead dog in the Republican pack. And as always, The Donald is making his bones by firing nonstop from the lip.  Trump will call out allies, friends, and enemies.  Clearly, Trump is a reluctant Republican, but as a pragmatist, he has to ride one of two party horses.  Neo-cons and the righteous right, like the Cheneys, hate Trump with a passion.

So Donald Trump is just where he likes to be, impaled on three horns of a dilemma: a vindictive Deep State, woke Democrats, and the Republican neo-con right.  And it's not as though Trump needs a job or more acrimony in his life.  Donald Trump appears to be seeking restitution or vindication. A  cynic might even characterize his re-election quest as a political revenge tour.

There is only one safe bet for 2024.  Democrat shysters and cops will use any means, legal or not, to ensure that Donald Trump doesn't get re-elected.  If the subject is Trump, lawful and democratic precedents are roadkill.

No matter.  Trump, as always, is in it to win it.  So "Katy bar the door" as political blood will be spilt in 2024.

Skeptics and pundits might be wise to reserve judgment about the Donald's presidential prospects the third time around.  In 2020, Trump was walloped by a politicized pandemic, a subversive federal establishment, and a toxic partisan media.  Indeed, you could argue that Biden was elected by "anybody but Trump" sentiment, possibly compounded by urban voter corruption.  With all that smoke, you can't help but believe that more than a few Trump-haters, especially at Justice and FBI, torched more than a few legal standards.

There are other Republican contenders whom we could talk about, but why bother?  The likes of Chris Christie and Mike Pence will just split the also-ran vote and ensure that Trump wins the Republican primary.  Maybe that's the plan.

So let's suppose for a moment that Donald Trump is the nominee.  Trumpsters are still the most potent voting bloc on the right — and they are passionate about justice and vindication, if not revenge.  And things are different for 2024, too; no pandemic scare; the corrupt establishment, right and left, has been exposed; and the sentiment for 2024 may well be "anybody but Joe" — with the clear threat of Kamala Harris smirking in the wings.

If Trump gets re-elected, Haley would be a brilliant antidote to the WEF at State, and DeSantis could be the perfect purgative for Justice or DOD.  And both would still be well positioned to run and keep the White House in saner hands for several election cycles.

This is not to suggest that another long-shot Trump win would settle anything.  Indeed, the apparatus of federal departments, and many urban states, would still be in the hands of venal and vindictive Democrat partisans.  Given the reservoir of bile in the deep, or civil "servant," state, the American cultural war at home and the hot and cold wars abroad will rage on, no matter what.

A poisoned well takes generations to mend — if ever.

The 2024 American presidential election will be kinetic and entertaining, but the results are unlikely to produce anything that approximates peace, civility, or stability in these "United" States.

G. Murphy Donovan writes about the policy and politics of national security.  @GMurphyDonovan1

Image: Gage Skidmore via Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0.