Is Iran Preparing to Commit Another Massacre?

In 1988, the Iranian theocracy committed one of the worst mass murders in history since World War II.  The majority of the 30,000 victims were political prisoners affiliated with the main opposition, Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK).  Among the perpetrators of the crime was the regime's current president, Ebrahim Raisi.  Now his government is orchestrating another "trial" for the remaining members of the MEK, which the regime regards as an existential threat.  In many ways, Western appeasement has facilitated Raisi's emboldened measures.

The state-run Tehran Times reported on July 31 that the regime has announced a trial against "104 people of the fugitive group" and that "these people should name lawyers to defend themselves in court."  The move is clearly in response to a series of major political blows the regime has received from the organized opposition in recent months.

These developments have surely encouraged support for that opposition throughout the world.  They have also helped to fuel calls for Iranian officials to be held accountable for the 1988 massacre.  There has been little to push for such accountability over the past 34 years, but not because of a lack of evidence.  Six years ago, former U.N. special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran, Asma Jahangir, informed the UN General Assembly that "overwhelming evidence shows that thousands of persons were summarily killed."

Western fecklessness in the face of that evidence has emboldened the regime to expand its suppression to Europe by calling for the MEK's extradition and trial.  But 124 former world leaders and 3,600 lawmakers from 40 countries have challenged their governments' longstanding inaction by calling for the prosecution of regime officials for the 1988 massacre.  They have also expressed support for the opposition's 10 Point Plan for a democratic future in Iran.

These appeals were echoed last month by a resolution that was introduced to the U.S. House of Representatives by members Lance Gooden and Steve Cohen, with 36 co-sponsors.  It urged connections between the international response to recent and historical crackdowns, calling upon the United Nations Human Rights Council to include the 1988 massacre on the agenda of a commission of inquiry set up last November to investigate killings and mass arrests.

For the time being, though, Western governments continue to appease the mullahs.  Meanwhile, Tehran is terrified of the MEK influence increasing in spite of massacres, torture, and imprisonment.  So the mullahs have turned to the West to curb the MEK's activities. 

In June, Raisi held a 90-minute phone call with French president Emmanuel Macron, requesting that Paris ban a planned rally in support of the MEK.  The French government appeased the mass murdering regime's president, denying the MEK a permit for the rally.  However, the MEK disputed the decision in court and won.  It held a huge rally on July 1, which was attended by thousands of Iranians and hundreds of distinguished international personalities and parliamentarians from all over the world.

Almost simultaneous with the French decision to ban the opposition rally in France, the government of Albania, which is home to the MEK's headquarters near the capital Tirana, apparently caved in to the regime's extortion and terror threats.  Hundreds of police raided the MEK's headquarters, confiscating computers and killing an MEK official using unnecessary force and tear gas.  Hundreds were seriously injured.

The regime celebrated the French and Albanian assaults on the MEK and the democratic coalition of which it is a part, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), touting it as Raisi's "diplomatic triumph."

An emboldened Raisi is now calling for the "trial" of MEK members in Iran, hoping to repeat the 1988 massacre.  At the same time, MEK supporters are being harassed, arrested, tried in kangaroo courts, and condemned to execution.  This is all to create an atmosphere of fear and intimidation in the hopes of curtailing the growing popular support for the organization, especially among the youth.  On July 1, Resistance Units sent video clips of 10,000 acts of defiance that was aired during the Free Iran World Summit, demonstrating the movement's growing social appeal and prowess at home.

The regime's senior leaders have blamed the MEK and its Resistance Units for leading nationwide protests.  The most recent rounds of uprisings, which started in September 2022, have rattled the theocracy.  The regime is now at its weakest point ever.  The most convincing indicator is its desperation to eliminate the MEK as a potent alternative.

It was exactly 35 years ago when the regime decided to annihilate the MEK once and for all.  It failed.  Now, at its weakest point, it is relying on Western appeasement to finish the job. It is trying to avoid its inescapable fate: overthrow.  After nearly four decades, it is vulnerable and depleted of its strategic reserves, and its suppressive forces are fatigued.

This is not the time for the West to throw the genocidal regime a lifeline.  It is time for the West to stop appeasement, hold regime officials accountable, and pursue a policy that aligns with the people's demand for a just, secular, and democratic republic that respects human rights.  It can start, as the recent House resolution recommends, by ensuring that expatriate activists, including the residents of Ashraf 3, are duly protected as political refugees.

Ken Blackwell is the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Human Rights Commission.

Image: Chickenonline via Pixabay, Pixabay License.

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