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PrintJuly 17, 2008
Encouraging Poll Numbers for McCain
Today's state of the race:
Rasmussen: 3 point pickup for McCain in one day. Race now tied at 46. McCain obviously had a huge night yesterday. Rasmussen poll is average of 3 days.
Check out the trendline on Nate Silver's great site "538" (graph called super tracker): 6 point Obama lead down to 2 (compilation of polls). Also look at his 11 battleground states:
10 are Bush states. hence what I have been saying for a few months: McCain or Obama can win close, or Obama can win blowout, if Obama wins most of the 10. McCain would need to win national popular vote by 3 to 5% ,to move other blue states into play (Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Wisconsin). But if he wins popular vote by a few per cent, McCain won't need to. He will win pretty much all of the contested red states.
GOP is advertising in Colorado, New Mexico, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Virginia . McCain needs to step it up in Virginia. Silver has been saying all year Virginia may determine the election and will be the closest state. It sure looks like it.
In essence: Silver thinks only Iowa of Bush states is lost to McCain. I agree. New Mexico, Colorado and Ohio are all closely contested, (as is Michigan, a blue state)
