PrintNovember 2, 2010
How big?
John Podhoretz waxes enthusiastic in Commentary, euphoric with the numbers in the final Gallup generic ballot poll this cycle giving the GOP an edge of between 10 and 15 points, depending on turnout. Some generic polls have widened a bit lately (CNN, Fox, Rasmussen), while Gallup's numbers have been in this range for weeks.
If there is a late surge to GOP among independents, keep in mind that 1/3 of Americans who will vote have already voted. Many of the polls could overstate the GOP edge slightly due to the absence of cell phones in their surveys. Gallup does include them, Rasmussen does not. I think it will be a very good day for the GOP, but is a 15-20 point edge in the House vote possible? I don't think it will happen. If it does, Barney Frank, and Dennis Kucinich will lose. If the GOP had a 15-20 point edge, Harry Reid would not be fighting so hard in in Nevada. He would be done and buried.
Podhoretz suggests the GOP in a blowout night could win the Vermont and Oregon Senate seats:
A wave this large is unlikely to tilt any close race into Democratic hands. And it might mean a shocking Republican victory in a Senate race no one has even paid attention to (Oregon? Vermont?)
This is fantasy. Wyden will win by 10- 15%, Leahy by 30% or more. Podhoretz is also wrong (in this case too modest) on the number of real GOP targets -- there are 135 Democrat held House seats in play (121 of 256 are safe, according to RCP), with only 24 of the 135 in the likely Democrat column. That tells me at least 111 seats are real pick up opportunities, not that Republicans will win all of them, of course. So there are plenty of targets.
I am certain by the end of the day, the GOP will win some races no one thought possible (from the Likely Dem or maybe even safe list), and lose some everyone thought were low hanging fruit pickup opportunities. . For example, one open GOP held seat in south Florida, U.S House district 25, pits David Rivera versus Joe Garcia for Mario Diaz Balart's seat. Once thought fairly safe for the Republican Rivera, it is now neck and neck.
