The Guardian is reporting that Raymond Davis, the American diplomat held in Pakistan on charges of murder for defending himself from two would-be robbers, is, in fact, a CIA spy.

This comes as no surprise to anyone who has been following the case. The ex-special forces member was driving a rented car in a bad part of Lahore when he was cut off by two thieves on motorbikes. When one of the robbers threw down, Davis shot them both. His frantic call for help turned to tragedy when the car dispatched to rescue him - filled with plainclothes men armed with automatic rifles - ran over another Pakistani and killed him.

The Guardian got confirmation of his identity from both sides:

Based on interviews in the US and Pakistan, the Guardian can confirm that the 36-year-old former special forces soldier is employed by the CIA. "It's beyond a shadow of a doubt," said a senior Pakistani intelligence official. The revelation may complicate American efforts to free Davis, who insists he was acting in self-defence against a pair of suspected robbers, who were both carrying guns.

Pakistani prosecutors accuse the spy of excessive force, saying he fired 10 shots and got out of his car to shoot one man twice in the back as he fled. The man's body was found 30 feet from his motorbike.

"It went way beyond what we define as self-defence. It was not commensurate with the threat," a senior police official involved in the case told the Guardian.

The Guardian also discovered that a Colorado TV station had been in touch with Mrs. Davis:

A number of US media outlets learned about Davis's CIA role but have kept it under wraps at the request of the Obama administration. A Colorado television station, 9NEWS, made a connection after speaking to Davis's wife. She referred its inquiries to a number in Washington which turned out to be the CIA. The station removed the CIA reference from its website at the request of the US government.

Some reports, quoting Pakistani intelligence officials, have suggested that the men Davis killed, Faizan Haider, 21, and Muhammad Faheem, 19, were agents of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency (ISI) and had orders to shadow Davis because he crossed a "red line".

A senior police official confirmed US claims that the men were petty thieves - investigators found stolen mobiles, foreign currency and weapons on them - but did not rule out an intelligence link.

Even if he is a spy, Davis has diplomatic immunity. But the government of President Zardari has botched this incident so badly, that if they let him go, his government might be subject to Egyptian-style protests. The Pakistani press has ginned up anti-American feelings by publishing hysterical rumors and falsehoods which has the people - and prominent politicians - calling for Davis's head.

In the end, if the Pakistanis let him go, they will probably be faced with massive street demonstrations. If they try and convict him, they lose billions in aid.

Not a good choice, to be sure.