See also: In a crowded field, no dominant candidate in Chicago's mayor race

The stakes are high today in the contest to succeed Mayor Rahm Emanuel as the next captain of the sinking ship that is the City of Chicago.  The contest is "wide open," as Reuters puts it, with 14 candidates competing in the officially nonpartisan "jungle primary" that will lead to a runoff between the top two candidates if nobody gets 50% plus one vote.  Polling indicates that is very probable:

[William] Daley [brother and son of former mayors Daley and former Obama WH chief of staff], former federal prosecutor Lori Lightfoot and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle lead the crowded field with 14 percent each, according to a poll published Sunday by 270 Strategies.  They are trailed closely by three other candidates: Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza (10 percent), former Chicago School Board President Gery Chico (9 percent) and businessman Willie Wilson (9 percent).

Chicago voters are in turmoil over the Jussie Smollett hate crime hoax, as well as continuing revulsion over the 2014 police shooting of Laquan McDonald.  Video of Officer Jason Van Dyke shooting him 16 times was suppressed by the Emanuel administration, only to be released and result in Van Dyke's conviction last October.

The Chicago Tribune has profiles of each of the 14 candidates, but the result that seems likely — and which worries me and many others — is that Bill Daley and Toni Preckwinkle will be the top two and will run against each other in an election that will racially polarize the city, with African-American Preckwinkle and white-Irish Daley at odds with each other.  Both are Democrats, of course.  Preckwinkle was behind the soda tax fiasco.

University of Chicago political science professor Charles Lipson has a must-read article in the U.K. Spectator's American edition.  He provides essential background necessary for understanding any mayoral election in Chicago, and on the ongoing federal investigation of political corruption in Chicago that had the most powerful alderman, Ed Burke, wearing a wire for two years.  Tick, tick, tick...some time bombs are going to explode under the political establishment, in other words.  

 On Preckwinkle, he writes:

Until recently, everyone expected Toni Preckwinkle to win, going away.  She rose through the reform movement and now heads of the county government.  She's experienced, likable, and well-funded.  But she also has an 'Ed Burke problem.'  He held a very successful fundraiser for her.  Not that there's any connection, mind you, but she hired his son for a $100,000 job and admitted she spoke to the elder Burke before making the hire.

Toni has strong backing from the AFSCME public-sector union and the Chicago Teachers Union, which is determined to squash the city's large charter school program.  While many voters still favor her, others worry about insider deals and whether she can tackle the city's financial problems and continue its school reforms, which would pit her against her strongest supporters.

Daley is presumed to have the machine clout necessary to be the other candidate in the runoff.  Lipson explains how this works.

None of the candidates will be stellar, and none has the ability to reverse the death spiral of municipal finance under the rapidly escalating burden of excessive pension payments.

Photo credit: OmidGul.