It happens again: Russia cuts off energy lines to the West

The Nordstream II pipeline from Russia to Germany has taken a new round of U.S. sanctions and has annoyed the Germans, who want the thing mightily.  They're blaming President Trump and arguing that he's interfering in their internal affairs.

But what happened just a few days ago between Russia and near-abroad Belarus ought to get the Germans' attention.  

To show they haven't changed a bit after all these years and are still hell-bent on using energy as an instrument of control, they cut the Belrusians off.  Here's an Associated Press report, emphasis mine.

(MINSK, Belarus) — Belarus has reached an agreement with Russia for limited oil supplies after Moscow earlier this week stopped supplying crude amid stalled talks on strengthening economic ties between the neighboring countries.

Belarusian state-run oil company Belneftekhim said Saturday that the country's refineries started receiving the first batch of crude oil, sufficient to ensure "non-stop operation of the country's refineries in January 2020."

"...amid stalled talks on strengthening economic ties"?  They cut off a country's oil for that?  Who'd want economic ties with people who'd leave you freezing?  Belarus, of course, is run by a bad dictator, who plays footsie with Vladimir Putin and the Chicoms all the time.  But what goes to Belarus by pipeline often has a way of making its way West, meaning that if Belarus doesn't play ball with Putin any time he wants to, then no more oil.  Freeze your tail off in the middle of the icebound northern European January.  Funny how these cutoffs happen so often in January.

Worse still, these cutoffs are not new.  The Russians cut off gas lines to Ukraine that were critical in supplying energy to Eastern Europe in 2006 over a payment dispute, and Europe went without.  Some Europeans even froze to death.  The Russians did it again in 2009, over similar matters, and yet again in 2014 over the same thing.  If there's one thing obvious about buying oil or gas from Russia, it's that a buyer needs to be prepared for a cutoff, because cutoffs are a way of life for the Russians.  The Nordstream II pipeline now under sanctions was a bid to get around the petty disputes of Russia's former empire, the near-abroad states such as Ukraine and Belarus, and deal directly with the Germans, pretty much blaming the Eastern European states' plights for the problem.  Europe gets 15% of its gas from Russia, and Nordstream II will make that percentage higher.

No wonder the U.S. is trying to save them from themselves.  Here's a useful CNBC report on the U.S. sanctions:

The Senate voted overwhelmingly to pass the multi-billion dollar billion defense policy bill, formally known as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), on Tuesday. The NDAA covers a broad range of defense policy and military spending.

The annually-set NDAA is also significant for Europe's energy scene, however, as the 2020 bill also contains provisions to impose sanctions on companies installing deep sea pipelines for Russia's $10.5 billion Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline linking Russia and Germany (via the Baltic Sea).

The pipeline is Russia-led, under the aegis of the country's state-owned energy giant Gazprom, but has been part-financed by several European energy companies, including Shell, OMV and Engie.

The AP thinks it won't make much difference, given that the project is nearly complete.  But the bottom line remains: Russia uses energy as a weapon.  It uses cutoffs to command obedience to its dictates from its buyers, and it insists on money as tribute.  The Russians did it before on the shambling little eastern European borderland states, and they'll do it to Germany, given the right conditions, too.

Germany seems determined to fall for it.  Instead of developing their own energy resources, such as their once-great nuclear power industry, which they shut down a few years ago, the Germans are determined to substitute Russian goodwill for energy independence.

Trump bad, Putin good — so the recent German poll goes.  Putin and German chancellor Angela Merkel, meanwhile, are busy meeting together now in a bid to check Trump on restoring the Iran deal.   

Does any of this make sense?  Germany seems determined to make itself Russia's pawn in a bid to Get Trump.  The Germans seem to want to learn the hard way that this won't end well.

Image credit: U.S. Department of Energy via Wikipedia Russia, public domain.

The Nordstream II pipeline from Russia to Germany has taken a new round of U.S. sanctions and has annoyed the Germans, who want the thing mightily.  They're blaming President Trump and arguing that he's interfering in their internal affairs.

But what happened just a few days ago between Russia and near-abroad Belarus ought to get the Germans' attention.  

To show they haven't changed a bit after all these years and are still hell-bent on using energy as an instrument of control, they cut the Belrusians off.  Here's an Associated Press report, emphasis mine.

(MINSK, Belarus) — Belarus has reached an agreement with Russia for limited oil supplies after Moscow earlier this week stopped supplying crude amid stalled talks on strengthening economic ties between the neighboring countries.

Belarusian state-run oil company Belneftekhim said Saturday that the country's refineries started receiving the first batch of crude oil, sufficient to ensure "non-stop operation of the country's refineries in January 2020."

"...amid stalled talks on strengthening economic ties"?  They cut off a country's oil for that?  Who'd want economic ties with people who'd leave you freezing?  Belarus, of course, is run by a bad dictator, who plays footsie with Vladimir Putin and the Chicoms all the time.  But what goes to Belarus by pipeline often has a way of making its way West, meaning that if Belarus doesn't play ball with Putin any time he wants to, then no more oil.  Freeze your tail off in the middle of the icebound northern European January.  Funny how these cutoffs happen so often in January.

Worse still, these cutoffs are not new.  The Russians cut off gas lines to Ukraine that were critical in supplying energy to Eastern Europe in 2006 over a payment dispute, and Europe went without.  Some Europeans even froze to death.  The Russians did it again in 2009, over similar matters, and yet again in 2014 over the same thing.  If there's one thing obvious about buying oil or gas from Russia, it's that a buyer needs to be prepared for a cutoff, because cutoffs are a way of life for the Russians.  The Nordstream II pipeline now under sanctions was a bid to get around the petty disputes of Russia's former empire, the near-abroad states such as Ukraine and Belarus, and deal directly with the Germans, pretty much blaming the Eastern European states' plights for the problem.  Europe gets 15% of its gas from Russia, and Nordstream II will make that percentage higher.

No wonder the U.S. is trying to save them from themselves.  Here's a useful CNBC report on the U.S. sanctions:

The Senate voted overwhelmingly to pass the multi-billion dollar billion defense policy bill, formally known as the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), on Tuesday. The NDAA covers a broad range of defense policy and military spending.

The annually-set NDAA is also significant for Europe's energy scene, however, as the 2020 bill also contains provisions to impose sanctions on companies installing deep sea pipelines for Russia's $10.5 billion Nord Stream 2 (NS2) gas pipeline linking Russia and Germany (via the Baltic Sea).

The pipeline is Russia-led, under the aegis of the country's state-owned energy giant Gazprom, but has been part-financed by several European energy companies, including Shell, OMV and Engie.

The AP thinks it won't make much difference, given that the project is nearly complete.  But the bottom line remains: Russia uses energy as a weapon.  It uses cutoffs to command obedience to its dictates from its buyers, and it insists on money as tribute.  The Russians did it before on the shambling little eastern European borderland states, and they'll do it to Germany, given the right conditions, too.

Germany seems determined to fall for it.  Instead of developing their own energy resources, such as their once-great nuclear power industry, which they shut down a few years ago, the Germans are determined to substitute Russian goodwill for energy independence.

Trump bad, Putin good — so the recent German poll goes.  Putin and German chancellor Angela Merkel, meanwhile, are busy meeting together now in a bid to check Trump on restoring the Iran deal.   

Does any of this make sense?  Germany seems determined to make itself Russia's pawn in a bid to Get Trump.  The Germans seem to want to learn the hard way that this won't end well.

Image credit: U.S. Department of Energy via Wikipedia Russia, public domain.