A look at the damage from the Iranian missile attack on Al-Asad Airbase in western Iraq is sobering.  The Iranian missiles showed great precision inin their attacks, and this strike provided a robust test and warning of their capabilities.  They hit and destroyed aircraft hangars on the airbase, showing something close to one-meter accuracy.  Of five hangars in a row, the one in the middle was targeted, showing off their precision.  The Iranians clearly have current intelligence and targeting information about the airbase, and they were able to execute the strike precisely.

They can reasonably say they targeted and destroyed the drones that killed General Qassem Soleimani.  At least some hangars on the airbase that they think the drones came from were destroyed.  Reports state that their in-country propaganda are claiming almost a hundred U.S. dead.  While it seems that no U.S. Marines were hurt, it is clear that the Iranians could have struck living quarters in an attempt to hurt Americans.  It is said they provided warning ahead of their strike.  They showed restraint on their end.

This is a wake-up call and a warning for the region.  Their capabilities are now clearly demonstrated.  Many of our most commonly used airbases are well within range.  Our bases in Iraq frequently faced short-range rocket attacks, but this was the first ballistic missile attack in years.  If we had effective ballistic missile defenses in place at Al-Asad, we would have defended these targets.  We did not have them, and either we did not defend them or the effective strikes were those that slipped through our defense.  We can assume that Patriot batteries will be deployed to our Iraqi airbases, but only if the Iraqi government permits.  

As for further hostilities with Iran, now front and center is the idea that we would need to fight from airbases or carriers outside effective missile range in order to first disrupt the missile launch systems so that airbases that are closer could be safely used.  In the first Gulf War, tremendous effort was put into the Scud Hunt, as Saddam lobbed Scud missiles at Saudi Arabia and Israel, while our aircraft desperately tried to find the missile launchers.

Trump deterred Iran by being willing to strike hard back.  Iran’s economy and oil production in particular are vulnerable.  But Iran has shown intelligence in its signaled desire to walk away from conflict, and it has simultaneously signaled deterrence by demonstrating its capacity to hurt its neighbors hosting U.S. airbases.  Expect increased sales of Patriot missiles by all countries in the region.