On April 23, Illinois's Governor Pritzker proclaimed that "the projections are clear.  If we lifted the stay at home order tomorrow, we would see our deaths per day shoot into the thousands by the end of May, and that would last well into the summer."  When questioned on what projections those were, Pritzker refused access to the models.  Some simple math reveals why.

Pritzker provided no dates or numbers, so let us assume that "thousands" means at least 1,000 and "well into the summer" means at least August 6 (halfway through summer), 67 days from June 1.  He said "by the end of May," so tack on a few days for good measure and make it a nice round 70 days.  People will still be dying before the end of May and after "well into the summer," and 1,000 is not "thousands."  A minimum of 70,000 deaths divided by an (at the time) established 0.5% infection fatality rate (IFR) yields a minimum of 14 million infections with SARS-CoV-2.  But Illinois has only 12.6 million residents, and the number gets smaller every year.

What about those deaths during May and in late summer that we have yet to include?  A linear buildup through May would average another 15,000 deaths, and a similar decline in late summer would add another 15,000.  That is 100,000 total deaths from COVID-19, by Pritzker's projections, which means 20 million infections.  Illinois is 7.4 million people short.

Pritzker said "thousands," which means we should expect at least 2,000 per day, doubling that to 40 million infections, short by 27.4 million people.  Yale projected that there were close to 29.5 million illegal aliens in the United States.  Surely, not all of them are in Illinois.

Even if we give Pritzker the leeway of an unreasonable and unsupported 1% fatality rate, we still lack enough Illinois residents to realize his "projections," assuming an unreasonable 100% infection rate.  Pritzker proclaimed that Darren Bailey "made an enemy of science and reason," but science requires review of methods and data, which is even more necessary with Pritzker's blatantly unreasonable claims.  Pritzker has barred science, and he is most definitely not reasonable.

Pritzker is now facing multiple lawsuits, and his only defense is that he needs to ignore the plainly written law in order to save lives.  Using a more reasonable 0.1% IFR and still assuming an unreasonable 100% infection rate, that is 12,600 deaths from COVID-19 in Illinois.  Comparing to 25,755 deaths from heart disease, 23,885 deaths from cancer, 6,016 deaths from accidents (~1,000 in motor vehicles), 5,855 deaths from stroke, 2,683 deaths from drug overdose, 2,564 from influenza and pneumonia (ILI), 1,373 from shootings, about 1,000 from other murders, and about another 38,977 deaths from various other causes, stopping SARS-CoV-2 just doesn't seem all that important a crusade.  It's made even less important considering that a large portion of the 12,600 deaths will be stolen from heart disease, ILI, and other, and 2,355 of them have already occurred.

If saving lives were so important, Pritzker could save 1,000 deaths per year just by shutting down the roads.  He is a Democrat, so he believes in public transportation, right?

Nothing is ever quite so hilarious as buffoonish autocrats embarrassing themselves.  Of course, they embarrass the people whom they rule in the process.  From the McHenry County Blog to the Edgar County Watchdogs, people across Illinois have called Pritzker a "fat pig."  Citizens Against Government Waste named him Porker of the Month.  Making unreasonable, secret "projections" and belittling reporters for exposing his and his family's violations of his own orders, Pritzker sure loves his hogwash.  He might not be able to prove his lockdown necessary, but I am confident we can prove him a pig.

PS: Many people ponder about masks.  Those N-95 things stop 95% of particles sized about 10 microns.  SARS-CoV-2 is a hundred times smaller.  It's like a mouse scurrying through a forest.  Even if SARS-CoV-2 were 10 microns across, have you ever seen someone use an air hose to blow out an air filter?  Cough, cough.  Actually, breath, breath.  Doctors and nurses use masks to protect open wounds from their spittle and their open mouths from squirts of who-knows-what.  Despite the masks and sanitation, hospital-acquired infections still do in about 99,000 people per year.  That's almost 3.5% of all deaths.

Photo credit: Lt. Col. Badford Leighton (cropped).