Indiana's blue floor shifts under Pete Buttigieg

Former presidential candidate and South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg is reportedly lobbying for the ambassadorship position to China under a potential Biden administration, according to recent reports.  As the former mayor eyes national politics, his local party's control of historically Democratic seats is quickly loosening.

The GOP made historic gains at the county, state, and federal level this November in St. Joseph County, Indiana — known traditionally as a Democrat stronghold. 

For the first time, the county's Board of County Commissioners will be under unanimous GOP control, which will include prominent Democrat-turned-Republican Derek Dieter.  The County Council remains under Democrat control — 6 to 3 — yet the rightward shift of the Board of County Commissioners received much attention by local media.

Republicans were also able to win two tight state House races — both of which Democrats invested in heavily — as the GOP retained control of one seat and flipped another.  The GOP's flipped seat includes large swaths of the west and south sides of Buttigieg's South Bend.

Success for Republicans in St. Joe County expands the GOP's control of the Indiana Statehouse to 71-29 (previously 67-33), as well as retaining a supermajority in the State Senate (39-11).  Both legislative supermajorities are accompanied by a GOP governor and a conservative attorney general.

Republican success at the state level was matched by U.S. representative Jackie Walorski's commanding victory, winning her re-election bid by a margin of nearly 70,000 votes.  Walorski's district includes all of St. Joe County and surrounding rural areas.

St. Joe County as a whole still reportedly voted Democrat by roughly 6,500 votes — yet this number is nowhere near the margin needed for carrying the area's congressional seat.  It is also nowhere near the margins by which Obama carried the county — by over 20,000 in 2008, enough to tip Indiana narrowly into the Democrat column.

Perhaps the biggest blow to the local Democratic Party, however, was the flipping of the county commissioner seat to GOP control, in the county's western third.  This Commission District includes a large section of urban South Bend — which includes the city's largest minority communities.

Now-commissioner Derek Dieter — a former police officer who served as a Democrat and president of the South Bend City Council during part of Buttigieg's tenure as mayor — defeated former South Bend councilman and perhaps the city's most prominent African-American leader, Oliver Davis, Jr.  Dieter won with a tireless ground game, with strong social media presence, and by flipping and engaging reliably Democrat voters on the city's west side.

Local media — with some chagrin — have noted the county's rightward shift and the apparent dominance of Walorski at the congressional level and the newly emergent GOP at the County level.  Such trends explain Buttigieg's long-shot presidential run — pigeonholed as he was from running for statewide office or other federal positions.

Buttigieg's unsuccessful 2010 run for state treasurer resulted in a seismic loss by over 400,000 votes — more than a 60-to-40-percent spread.  Even after serving two terms as mayor of the state's fourth largest city, the odds of a successful run for statewide office remain slim for Buttigieg.

Such would explain his otherwise inexplicable run for the nation's highest office as a way to build name recognition in hopes of nomination to a Cabinet position under a Democratic president — a tactic that may work.

In the meantime, his backyard is getting a lot redder — even encroaching upon once solidly blue urban areas of South Bend.  Municipal elections in 2023 will be telling as to the success of local Republicans, as city government remains largely controlled by Democrats.

Image: Marcn.

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