The first and to me highly desirable  scenario is that Ukraine eventually takes back all or part of Russian-annexed Ukrainian territory. This currently seems like an unlikely scenario since the battlefront situation is basically a stalemate trench warfare situation with neither side making any strategic gains thus resulting in what could be considered to be a stalemate situation. Neither the Russian nor Ukrainian soldiers have been trained for successful strategic breakthroughs with swift coordinated air and land assaults.

If Ukraine is to take back any territory from the Russians it will require almost never-ending Western economic and military aid in the form of an almost limitless supply of artillery shells, drones, precision long-range rockets and missiles, air defense systems, and ongoing excellent surveillance information which accurately tracks Russian logistics.

If Western aid continues for years then it is entirely conceivable that Ukraine will devastate Russian logistics by taking out command control centers, anti-aircraft defense systems, munitions dumps, petroleum storage areas, and infrastructure such as railroad lines, airfields, and bridges like the Kerch bridge connecting Russia and Crimea located on the Black Sea which Zelensky desperately wants back in Ukrainian hands.

By devastating the Russian logistics structure Ukraine could conceivably slowly advance using mine sweepers, artillery, troop vehicles, tanks, assault squads of about 10 to 15 soldiers, and drones to break through Russian defensive lines with a minimal loss of soldiers whose attrition rate is of paramount concern. Both sides are running low on soldiers for the front lines and a second mobilization of troops by Russia could really put a lot of stress on Ukraine to also mobilize more soldiers. Of course a second mobilization of hundreds of thousands of largely unwilling, untrained, Russian cannon fodder conscripts will also greatly stress Russia and Putin’s government.

Realistically, with a dearth of Ukraine’s soldiers and no possible bold strategic military move this scenario could conceivably last for years and not just months. Loss of a lot of Western aid in the near future could result in Scenario 2.

Scenario 2 is an indefinite stalemate situation along the current military borders with an occasional exchange of artillery, drones, and mortar fire which can broadly be described as border skirmishes with no significant military results. This seemingly never-ending struggle would probably not last long without a probable change in Ukraine’s political structure and growing pressure to reach some kind of political peace agreement which would lead to Scenario 3.

Scenario 3 would be a Russian victory with both sides agreeing to a new border with Russia keeping all of the currently annexed Ukrainian territory.

After Scenario 3, Putin would be emboldened and would probably spend future years trying to rebuild the military and then preparing it for further incursions into Ukraine and beyond. So, Scenario 4 is Putin preparing to take over all of Ukraine which now seems like a very remote scenario.

With Scenario 2, 3, and 4 being very bad for Ukraine let’s pursue Scenario 1 a little further and think of an outcome where Ukraine eventually recaptures much of southern Ukraine cutting off the Russian land bridge to Crimea. It is then entirely possible that Crimea will fall back into Ukrainian hands. If the loss of Crimea means the end of Putin’s rule then a possible 5th scenario is Ukraine starting peace talks and compromising a little by letting Russia keep much of the eastern Ukraine Donbas region as an equitable end to all hostilities and overall peace.

For the next year or so Scenario 1 is still in play. If Western aid eventually severely diminishes, especially U.S. military aid, then Ukraine is in big trouble and will probably never get much more of the Russian annexed Ukraine territory back into the foreseeable future.

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