In order to really understand and gain control of the present border crisis, one can paraphrase James Carville’s famous dictum during the 1992 presidential election: “It’s the ROI, stupid.”

The term “ROI” stands for “return on investment.”  If invested capital generates income, then the ROI is positive.  If the capital invested generates a loss, then the ROI is negative.  Rational investors always seek positive ROI.  Whether they receive it or not is a different matter, but they initially expect to get it.  There are winners and losers.

Migrants coming to the USA right now have to make a significant investment.  There is a monetary investment in the form of payment given to the Mexican drug cartels to shepherd them to and across the border.  Many migrants take flights from their home countries to Central or South America and then trek north.  Flights costs money, which increases their investment after payments to the cartels.  Often this also involves future payments earned as the result of working in this country, legally or not.  These payments may be monetary or in the form of indentured labor.

There are other forms of investment as well.  Primary among them is human capital.  Hiking from Central or South America to the U.S. border is not easy.  It involves many weeks of time; many miles of walking; and risk of physical danger from snakes, terrain, and weather along the way.  You have to sleep outside a lot, access to food is uncertain, and one has to negotiate the Rio Grande and the desert.  We know that many are lost in transit.  On top of that, there is the real risk of mistreatment by the cartels.  Many, many adult and adolescent female migrants are sexually abused on their journey here.  Children of both sexes are often abused as well.  Once in the USA, they are often trafficked.  Men and women are forced into indentured servitude by the cartels in different forms, some involving drug-dealing.  The women are placed in brothels, displaying their wares on the streets of American cities.  Think of the psychological and physical scars accrued by these people.  That is a real cost that represents a very significant personal investment.

So why do it?  The reason is that there is a net positive ROI.  Once in the USA, they are provided with free housing, food, clothing, and cell phones.  On top of that, they receive some cash payments from state and local governments as well as publicly funded non-governmental organizations (NGOs).  They work illegally ASAP, so they get cash that is used to repay any cartel debt and also some to remit home.  They are eligible for free health care.  Their children receive a free education at all levels — including college and graduate school.  There are actually state-funded programs that assist illegals in achieving homeownership.

All of this generates a positive ROI.  All investors seek a positive ROI, and these migrants are not at all different.  It makes sense for them to be here; it is perfectly rational from their point of view.

Of course, the positive ROI that they receive does not mean a positive ROI for the rest of us.  The cost of housing a family of migrants in NYC is almost twice the median family income for legal residents and American citizens.  On top of that add the costs of health care, education for non-English-speakers, etc., and the sum quickly balloons.

It will be pointed out that illegals do pay taxes.  That is true.  However, the costs are far in excess of the taxes paid, so they are a net burden financially.  There are also social non-monetary costs associated with lawlessness and the failure of these populations to assimilate.

Citizens and legal residents are now objecting to the size of the burden.  But the question is what to do about it.  As long as the ROI is positive, it is rational for more migrants to come.  It is that simple.

The only way you will really solve the problem is to make the ROI a negative number.  Building a wall is a help in doing so, but that is not the real solution.  Getting around it requires a somewhat larger investment of effort, but the ROI is still positive.  As long as ROI is positive, it will encourage people to try to get over or around it.

The only way to turn the positive ROI to a negative is to eliminate the advantages of coming here.  That means strict enforcement of hiring practices so only those here legally are eligible.  Remittances for those not legally here must be highly taxed.  Housing benefits, etc. must be gone for migrants.  There should be fair and quick processing of asylum claims followed by immediate return to their home country if denied.  Any country refusing acceptance of its citizens will be ineligible for any foreign aid from the USA or any NGO funded by the USA.  Illegals should be ineligible for any government social service programs.  Birthright citizenship must be restricted only to citizens and legal residents.  Health care should be given only on an emergency basis, and once the patient is stabilized, he must be handed over to ICE for processing.  Schools must notify the federal government on the identity of any illegally resident students or risk the loss of federal funds to their district.

It is these and other steps that will convert a positive ROI to a negative.  Migrants will not pay large sums to cartels and risk physical and psychological harm if the outcome is a bad one.  There will be outcry over these steps, but only by changing the ROI calculation will the problem be solved.  After all, these people are rational investors and therefore will not seek a negative ROI.

Image: pasja1000 via Pixabay, Pixabay License.